After the Thanksgiving showdown between two female-led films, “Moana 2” and “Wicked,” attention shifts to Christmas’ two major tentpole releases: Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and Disney’s prequel “Mufasa: The Lion King.”
Fueled by its appeal to teenage boys and video game enthusiasts, “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” is expected to outpace “Mufasa” in its domestic opening, with projections in the high $50 million to $60 million range.
Some industry insiders predict the gap between the two could be well over $10 million. However, on the global stage, “Mufasa” reigns supreme with an anticipated $180 million debut. “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” will not begin its international rollout until Christmas Day.
Competition Among Holdovers
“Mufasa” and “Moana 2,” now in its fourth weekend, are targeting the same younger female audience. “Moana 2” is expected to drop about 50%, earning approximately $12 million. Meanwhile, “Wicked” is projected to bring in a similar $12 million during its fifth weekend.
Global Release Schedule for “Mufasa”
“Mufasa” begins its international journey this Wednesday in major markets such as France and Korea, expanding to Germany, Italy, Australia, Brazil, and Mexico on Thursday, and concluding its rollout with Spain, the UK, China, and Japan on Friday. Its overseas debut is expected to surpass $130 million, with potential upside.
Directed by Oscar-winning filmmaker Barry Jenkins, this visually stunning, photorealistic animated feature has garnered a 61% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The film narrates the origin story of Mufasa, an orphaned cub who befriends Taka, a lion of royal lineage. Their friendship is tested as they face a formidable adversary.
In the U.S., “Mufasa” will be shown in 4,000 theaters, including 400 IMAX and 2,300 3D screens. Premium Large Format (PLF) screens will be shared with “Sonic the Hedgehog 3.”
Moana 2 (Photo: Disney)
Previews for “Mufasa” start Thursday at 2 PM, with $7 million already earned in advance ticket sales. “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” is currently pacing ahead in pre-sales for the weekend, with a spike expected from Christmas onward.
“Mufasa” targets women of all ages, while “Sonic 3” is aimed at the 17-34 demographic, teens, and boys aged 6-10. “Sonic 3” will open in 3,800 domestic theaters, with special fan events kicking off at 3 p.m. Thursday, followed by nationwide screenings at 5 PM.
Historical Comparisons
Back in 2019, Jon Favreau’s “The Lion King” premiered in China ahead of other international markets, earning over $50 million during its opening.
This strategy is not being replicated for “Mufasa” due to uncertainties in the Chinese market, which is not expected to yield comparable results. The 2019 “Lion King” achieved a remarkable $191.7 million domestic opening, ranking as the 10th largest in U.S./Canada box office history.
For offshore comparisons, the performance of “The Lion King” live-action remake in 2019 isn’t entirely relevant due to its exceptional success in a more stable global market and a summer release window.
More fitting parallels include similarly timed Christmas releases such as “Wonka” ($71 million at current exchange rates), “Jumanji: The Next Level” ($122.8 million), and May 2019’s “Aladdin” ($115.3 million).
Domestically, the focus for both “Mufasa” and “Sonic 3” lies on achieving a 5x-6x multiple. Even if “Sonic 3” opens below its predecessors ($58 million in 2020 and $72.1 million in 2022), the expectation is that it will ultimately surpass their respective domestic totals of $148.9 million and $190.8 million.
Holiday Boost Abroad
Internationally, moviegoing traditionally accelerates after Christmas as audiences take advantage of holiday breaks, providing both films an opportunity to maximize their global earnings.
